Tip the AMOC yourself and explore different currents in the ocean.

AMOC

Depth layers

If the AMOC
tips

A science-based story that shows what our future could look like if the AMOC tips.

What if the ocean current that keeps the Netherlands warm almost shuts down in the coming century? That is not science fiction: the AMOC could reach a tipping point this century. On this page we explore what our climate could look like if this happens. First you read how such a shift can come about. Then you step into a story that takes you a hundred years into the future. Finally, you can read what this could mean for climate adaptation in the Netherlands and what you can do with this information.

What’s going on?

The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) is the system of ocean currents that carries warm water to Northwestern Europe. In the animation above you can see how this system works. Thanks to the AMOC, we have a relatively mild climate. Because of climate change, the AMOC is slowing down. The current KNMI’23 scenarios assume that the AMOC will slow down by 34 to 45% during the 21st century.

But there is also a chance that the current passes a tipping point and shuts down. A tipping point is a critical threshold: once a system crosses it, it ends up in a very different state. If the AMOC reaches its tipping point, a tipping period of 50 to 100 years follows, during which the AMOC weakens more and more, until it almost shuts down. Once the AMOC has passed its tipping point, it cannot easily recover. In recent years there has been growing evidence that the AMOC could reach its tipping point in the coming decades.

Climate impacts

If the AMOC reaches a tipping point and starts to shut down, this has major consequences for the climate across the whole world, including the Netherlands. We know that temperature, precipitation, sea level and storms in Northwestern Europe will change. It is not possible yet to say exactly how big the climate impacts will be, but we have an increasingly clear idea of the direction it could go.

Climate impacts of a tipping AMOC

Click on a climate impact for more information.

100-year timeline

An extreme future

In this story we take you into a possible future. What will our future look like if the AMOC reaches its tipping point within the next few years, then enters a tipping period and eventually almost shuts down? We have deliberately chosen this worst-case scenario, to make it clear what awaits us if the worst happens. We show how the climate changes during the tipping period, and what that means for us. We base this on current scientific findings. Scroll down to begin.

2026
Unstable

The tipping begins quietly

We see the world changing before our eyes: heatwaves, drought records and wildfires. The climate is becoming more and more extreme and is in an uncertain phase. The oceans are also responding unpredictably to the rapid changes: they are warming faster than ever. Except in one place south of Greenland, where the warming of the sea has been slowing down for years.

Scientists are not sure yet, but years later we will understand what happened in these years. Measurements will show that the tipping period had already begun in 2026.

2046
Weakened

The alarm bells ring

The climate as we once knew it is gone for good. Some KNMI scenarios have come true: warmer, drier summers and extreme weather. This spring, hailstorms cause major damage in the Westland of the Netherlands. Later in the year, downbursts damage entire villages. But something new is also happening: in recent years the winters have been getting colder and colder.

Measurements show that the AMOC is weakening rapidly. Alarm bells are ringing everywhere. The Delta Programme warns that sea level will rise even faster. Our coasts and dykes have since been prepared for this, but it is harder to take measures against the increasing salinisation.

2066
Severely weakened

Dry summers, colder winters

By now the difference between summer and winter has grown. This clearly shows that the AMOC is shutting down. The winters have become much colder and the summers drier and more barren.

National politicians are finding it hard to take the right measures. Farmers are finding it increasingly difficult to adapt. In the past, it was always wet enough during the growing season. Now it is bone dry. Because of the harsh winters, the growing season has also become much shorter. And it is not only happening in the Netherlands. All over the world, the changing climate is causing natural disasters and failed harvests. Farmers and growers are harvesting less than ever. As a result, supermarkets have been short of products for months this year.

2068
Severely weakened

On the other side of the ocean

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean it is also dry. In the southern hemisphere, warming simply continues. The areas in the tropics where there is a lot of rainfall are shifting further south every year. This makes the Caribbean extra dry. The heat that no longer reaches Europe because of the weakened AMOC builds up in the southern hemisphere. The coral reefs were already very weak; now the coral is completely bleached. Conservationists are doing everything they can to save the coral with the help of special aquariums.

The drought and the warming also have disastrous consequences for fishing and tourism in the Caribbean.

2086
Almost shut down

The sea advances

The annual monitor shows that sea level is rising faster and faster. Fortunately, the coasts and dykes have been reinforced. But this autumn there are many severe storms, which often come unexpectedly. This leaves less time to properly maintain and repair the storm surge barriers. People are now really becoming afraid of flooding. More and more families are moving to the east and south of the country. Some are even crossing the border.

In addition, the increasing salinisation puts even more pressure on freshwater management. The combination of rapidly rising sea level and persistent drought leads to freshwater shortages throughout the Netherlands.

2106
Completely shut down

Sea ice expands

It is a beautiful but ominous sight. When you fly over the coast of Iceland in a helicopter, you see it: kilometres of white, glittering sea ice. Icebreakers try to force their way through, but old shipping routes are no longer passable.

Because of the expanding sea ice, the winters are incredibly cold. This winter it was -18 °C for several nights in a row. The sea ice does not reach the Dutch coast, but we do have to deal with drifting ice on the rivers. So much ice is floating on the major rivers that ships can no longer sail on them. Ice jams also cause damage to dykes and flood barriers.

2126
New equilibrium

Icy times on a warming Earth

The AMOC began to shut down 100 years ago. There is now little left of this once enormous current. And it will stay that way for a long time. Because of the extremely low temperatures and the spread of ice, Iceland and the northern parts of Scandinavia have become uninhabitable.

The new climate also has major consequences for Dutch society. The persistent drought regularly disrupts the supply chains of our food supply. The result: empty shop shelves. Because of the rising sea level and the salinisation of our groundwater, there is not enough drinking water. The cold winters cause a lot of damage. And it is not over yet. The AMOC will remain in this shut-down state for thousands of years, while the Earth as a whole continues to warm.

Where do we go from here?

As you have read in this story, the consequences of an AMOC shutting down could be disruptive for the Netherlands. Our story sketches the worst case, but this future is not impossible. What can you do with this information?

It is good to stay informed, because research into the AMOC is developing rapidly. But you do not have to wait for more certainty before taking it into account. For example, you can make your plans flexible enough to move with an uncertain future, and explore what the risks of a shutting-down AMOC are for your work. Finally, you can of course help to slow climate change, because that reduces the chance that the AMOC tips.

1. Adapting to an uncertain future

Do you work on climate adaptation? A tipping AMOC makes the range of climate impacts even wider. It can help to design plans in such a way that they can move with different future scenarios. To give you a first overview, we list the impacts below. For each climate impact you can read how it could develop if the AMOC tips, and where that differs from the KNMI’23 scenarios.

Climate impacts compared with the KNMI’23 scenarios

Click on a climate impact for more information.

What stands out: only temperature can move in a different direction if the AMOC tips. Temperatures will drop, especially in winter.

The other impacts change in the same direction as in the KNMI’23 scenarios, but possibly faster or stronger. For these, the existing adaptation measures remain necessary. They may need to be deployed earlier or on a larger scale.

The cold will probably require new or different measures. Still, it is too early to make policy for this now, because researchers are still working on more certainty. We can however already start thinking about what the risks of cold in the Netherlands could be.

The bubble diagram below can help with this. It shows the cold impacts and their consequences, inspired by the bubble diagrams of the NAS adaptation tool. This lets you explore what extra cold means for your work, your sector or your surroundings.

It will become colder: cold impacts and their consequences

Click on the bubbles for more information.

It will become colder
More frost days
Infrastructure
Agriculture
Economy
Extremes
Colder surface water
River ice
Sea ice
Shipping
Water management
Cold winters
Energy
Damage and accidents
Health
Nature

2. Research and measurements

We do not yet know if and when the AMOC will tip. And as you read in the story, the start of a tipping is hard to recognise. That is why more research is needed. Researchers, including those at the KNMI, are working hard to provide more certainty about the shutdown of the AMOC.

For this, it is essential that the AMOC is monitored. This is already being done at various locations in the ocean. It is very important that these measurements can continue, so that we see the shutdown of the AMOC coming in time. The better we monitor, the sooner we see the signs, and the better we can prepare.

3. Tackling climate change

Adapting to climate change is becoming more and more important. But the most important thing remains: slowing the warming itself. For all tipping points in the climate, the faster the Earth warms, the greater the chance that we cross them. So the more we do to limit global warming, the smaller the chance that this story really happens.

Why this climate story?

In recent years, climate scientists have found more and more evidence that the AMOC could tip as early as this century. This could change the climate in the Netherlands dramatically. That is why at Stichting CAS we created this picture of the future. With text and images, we show what can happen if the ocean current starts to tip. In this way, we want to make professionals working on climate change and climate adaptation more aware of the dangers. Then we can prepare. We do not yet know for sure whether this tipping point will be reached. But if it happens, the consequences will be major. That is why it is important that we make our society resilient.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank all the experts we spoke to for this story for their time and valuable insights. In particular, we thank Dr René van Westen (Utrecht University) and Prof. Dr Caroline Katsman (TU Delft / KNMI) for their invaluable help in putting this story together.

Want to read more?

KNMI news articles

  1. Is it possible for the Gulf Stream to weaken sharply and suddenly? (in Dutch)
  2. Gulf Stream (AMOC) tipping point at high CO2 emissions (in Dutch)
  3. What awaits Europe if the Gulf Stream weakens sharply? (in Dutch)
  4. Europe will become much drier if the AMOC shuts down (in Dutch)
  5. Extra sea level rise along the Dutch coast if the AMOC shuts down (in Dutch)

Scientific articles

  1. CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Other websites

  1. Carbon Brief: an extensive overview of the science behind the AMOC and recent developments
  2. AMOC Scenarios: online tool that visualises the AMOC scenarios and their global impacts
  3. Klimaathelpdesk: on how the AMOC works and the consequences of a tipping (in Dutch)

© 2026 Climate Adaptation Services, development and design by Rosette Raterman